Energy and Environment are closely linked in what is often seen as a vicious circle: Increasing energy demand leads to greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions and causes environmental damage and climate change; leads to water quality and availability issues; to agricultural contamination; degradation of public health; affects population growth; and leads to increased demand for industrialisation such that the spiral accelerates. But it should be a virtuous circle in which increased energy supply should lead to economic growth, to a reduced human footprint on the environment and climate and to improved public health and population stabilisation. The question is how do we transform the potential vicious circle into the virtuous circle, one that leads to a globally sustainable society. The solutions will vary from country to country and I can only give a personal perspective framed by Australian experience.

　　This lecture will first review briefly climate predictions and some of the uncertainties in our understanding of climate change. It will then review some of the emerging trends in the response to such change and identify possible negative and unintended consequences. Third, it will address some of the Australian responses and possible responses that may also be relevant to China.

　　能源和环境之间的关系密切，常常被视为一个恶性循环：能源需求的不断增长导致温室气体和污染物排放，造成环境破坏和气候变化，带来水质量和可用性问题，导致农业污染和公共卫生退化，影响人口增长，最后导致工业化需求增长。这是一个螺旋加速循环。但是，这应是一个良性循环。在这一循环中，能源需求增长促进经济增长，使人类在环境和气候上的脚印减少，促使公共卫生改善，最后保持人口稳定。而后，摆在我们面前的问题是，我们如何从潜在的恶性循环过渡到造就全球可持续性社会的良性循环。各国有不同的解决方案，因此本人只是根据澳大利亚的经验阐明个人的观点。

　　本讲题将首先简要介绍气候预测和我们对气候变化了解中的一些不确定因素，然后介绍应对气候变化的一些新趋势并确定可能的负面和意想不到的后果，最后介绍澳大利亚的应对措施和一些可能与中国有关的应对措施。